World Affairs & Geopolitics · Conflict & Security
Nuclear Proliferation & Arms Control
Framework
A live assessment of how this issue works in practice—institutions, tradeoffs, and what would improve outcomes. Evidence accumulates in our Summa.
Background
Why this remains an issue
- Nuclear weapons create stability through deterrence but catastrophic risk through accident
- Nuclear non-proliferation faces challenges from both state and non-state actors
- Arms control agreements are difficult to negotiate and enforce
- Nuclear modernization programs raise questions about arms race dynamics
Core fault lines
- Deterrence vs disarmament: stability vs elimination
- Proliferation vs non-proliferation: security vs restraint
- Modernization vs stability: capability vs predictability
- Multilateral vs bilateral: universal vs major power focus
At a glance
Origin
Nuclear weapons create stability through deterrence but catastrophic risk
Why now
Nuclear weapons create stability through deterrence but catastrophic risk through accident Nuclear non-proliferation faces challenges from both state and non-state actors
What to watch next
How do we balance nuclear deterrence with disarmament goals? What approaches to non-proliferation are most effective?
Snapshot
Current signals
- Nuclear weapons create stability through deterrence but catastrophic risk through accident
- Nuclear non-proliferation faces challenges from both state and non-state actors
- Arms control agreements are difficult to negotiate and enforce
- Nuclear modernization programs raise questions about arms race dynamics
Analysis
Decision tradeoffs
- Deterrence vs disarmament: stability vs elimination
- Proliferation vs non-proliferation: security vs restraint
- Modernization vs stability: capability vs predictability
- Multilateral vs bilateral: universal vs major power focus
Working view
- Nuclear weapons create stability through deterrence but catastrophic risk
- Both non-proliferation and arms control are necessary for security
- Hybrid approaches that combine deterrence with reduction work best
- Nuclear security requires both state capacity and international cooperation
Deep intelligence
What could change our mind
- How do we balance nuclear deterrence with disarmament goals?
- What approaches to non-proliferation are most effective?
- Can we prevent nuclear use while maintaining deterrence?
- How do we manage nuclear modernization without arms racing?
Related articles
Recent reporting tagged to this topic—read snapshots first, then open full analyses.