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Debt, Fragile States & Reform ConditionsCrisis lending, conflict settings, and whether conditionality builds or breaks states.
Existential Risk & Civilizational ResilienceLow-probability high-impact risks are underweighted in ordinary policy cycles
US Leadership, Trump Pressure & Alliance DependenceHow US domestic politics and burden-sharing rhetoric reshape NATO confidence and European autonomy debates.
Israel-Palestine / Gaza CrisisLong-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, now shaped by Gaza devastation, hostage-security questions, humanitarian collapse, settlement/occupation disputes, and fragile or failing ceasefire architecture.