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Cost of Living, Household Debt & Middle-Class SqueezeOECD highlights high household debt alongside housing unaffordability as structural risks
Defence, Bundeswehr Modernisation & European SecurityZeitenwende promised a structural shift after Russia's invasion of Ukraine; delivery remains uneven
Defence, Mediterranean Security & NATO Burden-SharingItaly is a Mediterranean power—Libya, central Mediterranean routes, Red Sea, migration, and energy corridors shape security
Defence, NATO & Strategic PostureSpain faced NATO pressure over defence spending—among the lowest shares in the alliance at roughly 1.28% of GDP in 2024
East-West Divide & AfD ChallengeEastern Länder show higher AfD support, demographic outflow, and infrastructure gaps
Education & Human DevelopmentEducation systems transmit skills, norms, and visions of the good life
Mexico Cartels and State Capacity ConflictPersistent violence and governance contestation involving organized crime networks and state institutions
Organized Crime, Public Procurement & Local GovernanceMafia-type organizations affect procurement, local government, construction, waste, ports, agriculture, and EU funds
Red Sea Shipping Disruption (Houthi Campaign)Houthi attacks, naval protection missions, rerouting, insurance shocks, and supply-chain stress around the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and Suez corridor.
Taiwan Strait TensionsOngoing tensions over Taiwan's status and cross-strait relations
Defence Spending, 5% Commitment & Burden-SharingNATO’s higher spending benchmark and who pays for deterrence in a long rearmament cycle.