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Arctic Sovereignty, Defence & NATO Burden-SharingArctic warming opens the Northwest Passage and intensifies Russia, China, and US interest
Existential Risk & Civilizational ResilienceLow-probability high-impact risks are underweighted in ordinary policy cycles
Israel-Palestine ConflictLong-standing territorial and national conflict between Israelis and Palestinians
Sahel Insurgency and Governance CrisisLinked jihadist insurgencies, coups, and governance breakdown across parts of the Sahel
Strait of Hormuz Maritime RiskRecurring tanker seizures, military signaling, sanctions pressure, and escalation risk in a core global energy chokepoint.
Venezuela Governance and Displacement CrisisProtracted governance, economic, and legitimacy crisis with large regional migration effects