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Deterrence, Article 5 & Eastern Flank DefenceWhether NATO’s forward posture and reinforcement plans credibly deter coercion on the eastern flank.
Electoral Systems & RepresentationDifferent electoral systems create different incentives and outcomes
Iran-Israel Escalation CycleDirect and proxy confrontation risk between Iran and Israel across multiple theaters
Korean Peninsula Nuclear StandoffPersistent military confrontation and nuclear deterrence instability on the Korean peninsula
Political Fragmentation & the Fifth RepublicTraditional left-right blocs weakened; RN, Greens, and Macronists compete
Strait of Hormuz Maritime RiskRecurring tanker seizures, military signaling, sanctions pressure, and escalation risk in a core global energy chokepoint.