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Austerity, Social Legitimacy & Reform CapacityWhether adjustment programs are politically survivable.
Iran-Israel Escalation CycleDirect and proxy confrontation risk between Iran and Israel across multiple theaters
Racial Justice & Policing ReformPolicing practices and outcomes vary widely by jurisdiction and community
Russia, Hybrid Warfare & Grey-Zone ThreatsSabotage, cyber, information operations, and energy coercion below the Article 5 threshold.
South China Sea Maritime DisputesCompeting maritime claims, militarization, and freedom-of-navigation tensions in the South China Sea
Venezuela Governance and Displacement CrisisProtracted governance, economic, and legitimacy crisis with large regional migration effects