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Deterrence, Article 5 & Eastern Flank DefenceWhether NATO’s forward posture and reinforcement plans credibly deter coercion on the eastern flank.
Rule of Law & Democratic ConditionalityWhether EU values enforcement can survive Hungary, Poland-style disputes and still command legitimacy.
Strait of Hormuz Maritime RiskRecurring tanker seizures, military signaling, sanctions pressure, and escalation risk in a core global energy chokepoint.