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Debt Spreads, Italy/France Risk & ECB BackstopsFragmentation risk, fiscal dominance fears, and crisis tools.
Eastern DRC Armed ConflictPersistent armed violence in eastern DRC involving state forces, militias, and cross-border dynamics
Ethiopia-Horn of Africa FragilityPost-Tigray instability, inter-ethnic violence, and regional security strain across the Horn of Africa
Israel-Palestine ConflictLong-standing territorial and national conflict between Israelis and Palestinians
Productivity Stagnation & Industrial StrategyUK productivity growth has lagged peers since the financial crisis
Sudan Civil WarWar between the Sudanese Armed Forces and RSF with mass displacement, famine risk, atrocities, state fragmentation, and regional proxy dynamics.